Yield curve blares loudest U.S. recession warning since 2007

The latest eruption in the U.S.-China trade dispute pushed a widely watched Treasury-market recession indicator to the highest alert since 2007.
Rates on 10-year notes sank to 1.74% on Monday, close to completely erasing the surge that followed President Donald Trump’s 2016 election. In early trading, they fetched as much as 32 basis points less than three-month bills, the most extreme yield-curve inversion since just before the 2008 crisis.
The move follows reports that China is respondin