Is an Iranian bomb now more or less likely? It depends on these factors

Before the weekend’s U.S.-led strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, most Washington policy experts—including Donald Trump’s first defense secretary—believed such a move was unwise, could push Iran’s nuclear efforts underground, and might accelerate its development of a nuclear weapon. It remains unclear just how much damage was done by the bunker-busters and Tomahawks on Saturday, which followed Israeli strikes with lighter weapons. But the strikes alone—whether i