War wasn’t enough to budge oil prices. Here’s what could spark a big move.

Oil has seen a lot of ups and downs in the last two years, but following the outbreak of wars between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, and Israel and Hamas last year, prices have also stuck to a tight trading range after short-lived bouts of volatility.The “muted” swings in global benchmark oil prices, despite wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, reflect a modest geopolitical risk premium and the “stabilizing forces of elevated spare capacity and the OPEC put,” said ana