US Dollar Faces Crucial Test as NFP Data Approach. Forecast as of 04.09.2026

A sharp drop in the probability of the Fed tightening monetary policy in September—from 70% to 50%—has sent the EUR/USD soaring. What impact will the US August jobs report have on the pair? Let's discuss the potential scenarios and build a trading plan.Major Takeaways The market remains uncertain about a Fed rate hike. Falling Treasury yields have weighed on the US dollar. The upcoming employment data could determine the greenback's next move. Short positions opened near 1.1635 can b