Slowing Inflation Reshapes US Dollar Outlook. Forecast as of 16.07.2026

While at the outset of the armed conflict in the Middle East, oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and the US dollar were all moving in the same direction, everything changed in July as US inflation slowed. Let's discuss this topic and develop a trading plan for the EUR/USD pair.Major Takeaways The correlation between oil and Treasuries has changed. Producer prices indicate that inflation has peaked. Remarks by FOMC officials are weakening the US dollar. A decisive break above 1.147 will give a buy