What? Most AI Is Now Written by… AI

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For the better part of the last two years, I have been tracking what appeared to be a reasonably predictable pattern in AI development: a doubling of capability roughly every 3.5 months. That figure came from METR’s time horizon benchmarks — measurements of how long an AI agent can work autonomously on a task before failing. Early 2024 through early 2026, the data held with uncomfortable consistency. If you plotted it, the curve bent upward with