U.S. economy improving; rising COVID-19 cases a threat

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased more than expected in May and business activity contracted moderately this month, suggesting the economy was on the cusp of recovering from the recession caused by the COVID-19 crisis."The renewed upsurge in COVID-19 cases across the South and the West poses a clear downside risk over the coming months but, with a second wave of state-wide lockdowns appearing unlikely for now, we are assuming this will act as a modest drag on the economic recovery,